In today’s economic climate, it’s easy to feel overwhelmed. Stock market swings, predictions of a “Black Monday,” and a new trade war are dominating the headlines. But here in the Triangle, where stability and growth tend to weather national storms, these moments of fear may actually be opening doors.

At The Coley Group, we had an insightful chat with our trusted lending partner Paul Norman of Cross Country Mortgage to break down what’s really happening—and why it might be the perfect time to buy in Raleigh.

Market Uncertainty Creates Real Opportunity

When financial markets get volatile, the immediate instinct is to wait it out. But history tells a different story—some of the most successful homeowners in recent years were the ones who acted early, during uncertain times.

We saw this during COVID, when buyers secured homes at great prices and refinanced later into sub-3% mortgage rates. Similarly, after the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, those ready to move quickly took advantage of temporarily lower rates and less buyer competition.

Today’s market feels similar. There’s a unique window where mortgage rates—especially in the jumbo loan space—have dropped significantly. For buyers borrowing over $786,000, rates in the 5–6% range are back on the table, which is a dramatic improvement from the 7.25% rates we saw just months ago.

Understanding the Financial Forces at Play

So why are rates improving? The key lies in the bond market. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. When stocks tumble—as we’ve seen recently—investors flock to bonds, driving yields down. This drop typically results in lower mortgage rates, creating an ideal window for buyers.

At the same time, government-backed loans like FHA, VA, and USDA are seeing some of the lowest rates we’ve had since early 2024. While we can’t predict how long this will last, it’s a promising sign for well-prepared buyers.

Why Raleigh Continues to Outperform

While the national market might be bracing for a downturn, Raleigh continues to thrive. In the last four major economic corrections, the Triangle has not only stayed strong—it’s rebounded faster than most cities. Why?

• Diverse economy: From top-tier university systems to research and tech hubs like RTP, and strong healthcare infrastructure, Raleigh’s job market is incredibly balanced.
  
• Remote work appeal: Post-pandemic, Raleigh has emerged as a top destination for remote workers, drawn to the area’s affordability, livability, and career opportunities.
  
• Steady real estate growth: Unlike markets like San Francisco or Austin, Raleigh hasn’t experienced extreme price spikes, which means it also avoids the severe drops. That keeps our market resilient and predictable.
  

Tariffs and New Construction: What Buyers Should Know

If tariffs continue to rise, we’re likely to see increased construction costs. Builders are already cautious after the chaos of supply chain issues and labor shortages during COVID. Many lost money, and now they’re more conservative with pricing and inventory.

For buyers, that means prices could rise again soon—not because of demand, but because of sheer cost. Acting now, especially in the new construction market, could help you get ahead of those increases.

The Inventory Advantage: What’s Available Right Now

There’s good news for active buyers: inventory is available, especially in the $1 million+ segment. Builders are delivering homes. Resales are hitting the market. And with jumbo loans now offering rates in the low to mid-5s, this is a rare opportunity to land a luxury home without peak pricing or rate pressure.

Stop Chasing Rates—Start Preparing

A word of advice we keep repeating: don’t chase rates. Instead, prepare.

• Get pre-approved so you can move quickly.
  
• Clarify your priorities—where do you want to live, what features matter most, what’s your comfort zone financially?
  
• Work with experts who can help you strategize based on your unique situation.
  

Remember: low rates usually mean a struggling economy. You want to buy when the opportunity is right for you, not just because of a number on a chart.

The Bottom Line: This Is Not a Housing Recession—At Least Not in Raleigh

While national media might warn of recession, the Triangle tells a different story. Raleigh’s real estate market remains strong, supported by a stable economy and consistent buyer demand. As we navigate the uncertainty of trade wars, economic shifts, and financial fears, one truth remains:

Uncertainty breeds opportunity—if you’re ready for it.

Let’s talk about your options, your goals, and how to make the smartest move for you. Whether that’s today or ten years from now, we’re not going anywhere. Neither is Raleigh.

Contact The Coley Group today and Let’s connect and start planning your next move. We can’t wait to show you Raleigh’s best!