From rising inventory to fluctuating mortgage rates, understanding what’s driving buyer and seller behavior right now is essential, whether you’re preparing to list your home or looking to buy in one of Raleigh’s top neighborhoods.
This month, we’re breaking down the latest Triangle MLS data with insights from seasoned appraiser Stacy Afensson of the TARR Report and their “RTP, NC residential trends, September 2025,” video.
Let’s unpack what’s really going on behind the headlines.
Mortgage Rates: Easing Into Predictability
As of October 29th, mortgage rates are continuing to drift lower from their mid-year peaks:
- 30-Year Fixed: ~6.13% (Source: Mortgage News Daily)
- 15-Year Fixed: ~5.73% (Source: Mortgage News Daily)
Raleigh’s real estate market is shifting, and understanding the current trends is critical for buyers, sellers, and investors alike. From rising inventory to falling mortgage rates, we’ve analyzed the latest stats shared by expert appraiser Stacy Afensson to give you a clear picture of where things stand.
Inventory Is Up, But Prices Aren’t Down
Contrary to what many might expect, an increase in resale inventory hasn’t triggered a drop in listing prices:
- Resale listings in September rose 7% compared to August and are up 14% year-over-year.
- Despite more homes on the market, the median list price actually rose by 1% month-over-month and 3% compared to September 2024.
What’s more surprising? 75% of active listings have been on the market for over 30 days, and half of them have already experienced a price drop. That suggests many sellers are still adjusting to a more normalized market pace.
New Construction Is Shaping the Market
New construction remains a key player in Raleigh’s housing landscape:
- 38% of available homes at the end of September were newly built properties listed in MLS.
- 39% of these new homes have seen price reductions, with an average drop of 5%.
- Resale listings have responded in kind, with 55% showing price drops of a similar 5%.
Pro Tip from The Coley Group: If you’re selling a resale home near new construction, pricing strategy is critical. Competing with builder incentives and quick-move-in discounts, especially in areas like Wake Forest, Fuquay-Varina, and Durham’s 27703 ZIP code, requires expert insight and positioning.
Mortgage Rates Are Dropping And It’s Making a Difference
If you’ve been waiting for a better time to buy, this may be it.
- Mortgage rates have dipped from 7.6% last year to 6.19% today.
- That drop means monthly payments are down 9%, even though average sales prices have risen 5%.
What does this mean? Buyers are getting more value, and homes are technically “cheaper” on a monthly cost basis than a year ago, even at higher prices.
Days on Market Reveal True Pricing Strategy
Afensson’s data shows a direct correlation between how quickly a home sells and how close it gets to its asking price:
- 31% of resale homes sold within 10 days—and they sold at 100% of list price.
- Homes sitting 90+ days sold at just 92% of their original list price.
Our Takeaway: Getting your price right from day one matters more than ever. We use data-backed strategies to position listings competitively and avoid the costly “price drop spiral.”
Withdrawn & Expired Listings Are Trending Up
- End-of-month listings are up 261% compared to Sept 2021
- Listings added in Sept are up 11% year-over-year
- Withdrawn and expired listings are trending upward since 2019
- Withdrawn: May be due to multiple reasons
- Expired: Usually indicates incorrect pricing
- Withdrawn: May be due to multiple reasons
How should you navigate this? Both categories have climbed this year, signaling that while demand remains, buyers are more discerning, and market-savvy agents are crucial.
The best market-savvy agents in Raleigh are a click away! Meet Our Team →
We’re showing Raleigh’s best
Q4 Trends + Builder Discounts
Historically, the fourth quarter is slower in terms of sold listings, but that doesn’t mean it’s quiet. In fact, lower mortgage rates are already juicing demand, and reports of multiple offers are starting to surface again.
But there’s a twist: National builders are offering aggressive discounts on their Quick Move-In (QMI) inventory, especially in Wake Forest, Fuquay, and East Durham.
These Q4 incentives, paired with builder-paid mortgage buy-downs, create an environment where buyers can score both a lower price and a better interest rate, posing a challenge for resale sellers who don’t adjust accordingly.
Final Thoughts: Accurate Pricing is More Crucial Than Ever
The market is active, but only for homes priced correctly from the start. With more inventory and smarter buyers, successful sales now rely on strategy, not guesswork.
Work With Raleigh’s Trusted Luxury Experts
At The Coley Group, we help clients navigate the nuances of the Triangle’s top-tier housing market with expert strategy, elevated service, and deep community insight. We’ll help you find the property that aligns with your vision, timing, and investment goals.
📲 Let’s explore your options. Call or text our team at (984) 217-2752 and unlock your next chapter with Raleigh’s most trusted name in real estate.
🏠 Find out how much your home is worth. Get a home value estimate to see how much you could sell for and how fast based on key trends happening in your area.
👋 New to the Triangle? Take our quick 7-minute Neighborhood Match quiz to find out which luxury community fits your lifestyle, plus get a personalized itinerary to help you imagine life there.
Social Cookies
Social Cookies are used to enable you to share pages and content you find interesting throughout the website through third-party social networking or other websites (including, potentially for advertising purposes related to social networking).