From the first balanced housing supply in over a decade to aggressive builder incentives reshaping pricing strategies, October’s Triangle market data tells a story of normalization, with some surprising twists. Understanding these shifts is essential whether you’re preparing to list your home or looking to buy in one of Raleigh’s top neighborhoods.

This month, we’re breaking down the latest Triangle MLS data with insights from seasoned appraiser Stacy Afensson of the TARR Report and his “RTP market update; October 2025,” video.

Let’s unpack what’s really going on in the Triangle.

Housing Supply Hits a Major Milestone

Here’s the biggest story of October: We’ve reached a 4-month housing supply for the first time since October 2014.

That’s right, we’ve officially moved out of the undersupply category that defined the market for nearly 11 years. This chronic undersupply is one of the primary reasons home prices climbed so dramatically over the past decade. With our population growing significantly during that same period, the supply-demand imbalance drove consistent appreciation.

Good News: Closings Jump 16%

October 2025 delivered a win for market activity:

• Closings up 16% compared to October 2024
• October listings down only 1% compared to the 18-year average going back to 2006
• The market is returning to predictable seasonal patterns, something we haven’t seen consistently in years

Contrary to negative headlines suggesting the market is struggling, the data shows we’re simply normalizing to historical trends.

Days on Market: Context Over Clickbait

National media loves to highlight that homes are “taking forever to sell” compared to pandemic-era frenzy. The reality?

• Current average: 63 days on market
• Historical average (2006-2024): 64 days

We’re literally one day under the long-term average. This isn’t a crisis, it’s normalization.

What Really Matters: Monthly Payment Affordability

Let’s talk about what buyers actually care about, monthly costs.

In October 2025, applying the national 30-year fixed rate mortgage to the average sales price, the monthly principal and interest payment was approximately $3,375.

• Up 2% from September
• Down nearly $300/month from August 2025 (thanks to the rate drop)
• Down from the April 2024 peak of $3,725

While sales prices have risen, that unexpected rate drop created real monthly savings for buyers, making homes more affordable on a payment basis than they were just months ago.

Inventory Surges 43% Year-Over-Year

Total inventory is up significantly:

• End-of-month listings up 43% compared to October 2024
• Still down 44% compared to 2009-2010 levels
• Remember: Our population has grown substantially since 2010

This inventory increase is healthy market correction, not oversupply. Buyers have more options, but we’re nowhere near the bloated inventory levels that preceded the 2008 recession.

Price Adjustments: The New Reality

A significant percentage of listings are experiencing price changes:

• 46% of new home listings have had at least one price drop
• 57% of resale listings have adjusted pricing
• Compare that to just 23% nationally

The Triangle is experiencing a higher rate of price adjustments than most of the country. Why? The answer lies in new construction dynamics.

New Construction: The Elephant in the Room

New construction represents 40-60% of market share in the Triangle, far higher than Chicago or northeastern markets. When builders make pricing moves, resale sellers must respond.

Here’s what’s happening right now:

• 68% of new home listings report builder-paid closing costs
• Major builders like Lennar attribute 14% of sales price to mortgage rate buydowns (roughly $58,000 in incentives on a $418,000 home)
• These incentives, typically structured as 5-year ARMs, save buyers approximately $34,000 over five years

The critical question: Is that $418,000 home really worth that price if it includes $58,000 in incentives?

Builder Profit Margins Are Shrinking

To quantify the impact of these incentives on builders themselves:

• Lennar’s gross profit margin: 22.5% in Q3 2024
• Lennar’s gross profit margin: 10% in Q3 2025

When builders are willing to cut margins by more than half to move inventory, it signals they’re anticipating market shifts, and resale sellers need to price accordingly.

What This Means for Buyers

You’re in the strongest position we’ve seen in years:

• More inventory means more options
• Builder incentives create substantial savings opportunities
• Lower rates compared to 2023-2024 peaks improve monthly affordability

Our advice: Understand the true value of what you’re purchasing. Builder incentives sound great, but make sure you’re not overpaying for the base price. Work with an agent who can analyze comparable sales without incentive distortions.

What This Means for Sellers

Strategic pricing is more crucial than ever:

• 57% of resale listings have already adjusted pricing
• New construction incentives force competitive repositioning
• Days on market correlate directly to pricing accuracy

Pro Tip: If you’re selling near new construction communities, especially in areas like Wake Forest, Fuquay-Varina, and Durham, your pricing strategy must account for builder incentives and quick-move-in discounts. Getting it right from day one prevents the costly “price drop spiral.”

Looking Ahead: Year-End Builder Incentives

Expect national builders to roll out even more aggressive sales incentives before year-end. Historically, Q4 is when builders push hardest to meet annual targets, and with current inventory levels and margin pressures, we anticipate substantial deals on Quick Move-In (QMI) properties.

If you’re considering buying or selling, now is the time to have a strategic conversation about timing.

Final Thoughts: This Is What a Balanced Market Looks Like

The Triangle market is normalizing, and while that requires adjustment for anyone used to pandemic-era dynamics, it’s ultimately healthy. We’re seeing:

• Reasonable inventory levels
• Historical days-on-market averages
• Improved affordability through rate adjustments
• Market conditions that reward strategy over speculation

The market is active, but only for homes priced correctly from the start. With more inventory and smarter buyers, successful sales now rely on data-backed strategy and deep local expertise.

Work With Raleigh’s Housing Market Experts

At The Coley Group, we help clients navigate the nuances of the Triangle’s housing market with expert strategy, elevated service, and deep community insight. We’ll help you find the property that aligns with your vision, timing, and investment goals.

📲 Let’s explore your options. Call or text our team at (984) 217-2752 and unlock your next chapter with Raleigh’s most trusted name in real estate.

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