Consumer confidence is quietly becoming the most influential force in the housing market, and according to Gretchen Coley, founder of The Coley Group, it is the factor driving the biggest disconnect between what the data predicts and how people are actually behaving.

During a recent conversation on the Trillium Wealth Plain Talk Podcast with Steve Laska and Matt Gomoll, Gretchen shared raw insights shaped by more than twenty five years of navigating market cycles across Raleigh, Wake County, and the greater Triangle. What emerged was a honest look at how buyers and sellers are thinking right now, why so many feel stuck, and what it really takes to make smart real estate decisions in a moment clouded by uncertainty.

The Elephant in the Room: Consumer Confidence

While everyone focuses on mortgage rates and housing prices, there’s a critical factor that isn’t getting enough attention: consumer confidence. As Gretchen told Steve and Matt:

“The consumer confidence piece of this is what nobody is talking about, and it’s what everybody is thinking about.”

While headlines fixate on mortgage rates, affordability, and inventory levels, Gretchen highlighted a truth that often gets missed. People are hesitating because they are unsure about their income stability, job security, and long term financial outlook. That hesitation is powerful, and it is showing up in a big way across Raleigh.

Dual income households are now the norm, and when even one partner feels unsure about job stability, major decisions get pushed aside. Add in news about large scale layoffs or concerns surrounding AI adoption in the workforce, and confidence wavers even more. Gretchen summed it up clearly:

“The consumer’s perception is their reality and they make their decisions based on that,” Gretchen explained. “And that is really what we are seeing in housing.”

This was evident this fall when mortgage rates dipped into the fives for FHA, VA, and conventional loans. Historically, that drop would ignite activity. Instead, many sellers pulled their homes off the market entirely.

The Lock-In Effect

Here in Raleigh and across North Carolina, the lock in effect is one of the strongest forces slowing movement. Millions of homeowners are holding historically low mortgage rates, often in the twos or threes. Trading that for a new loan in the sixes feels impossible for many families, even when their current home no longer fits their needs.

Yet Gretchen offered a reality check. Home prices in Raleigh are not expected to fall. The Triangle is not becoming less attractive. If anything, it is gaining strength with every passing year as more companies, families, and remote workers choose to relocate here.

Here in the Raleigh market, we’re experiencing what Gretchen described as a very real problem:

“Millions of existing homeowners are locked into 2 and 3% mortgages and some of them 4%. And they’re trading that for something, they’re asked to trade that for something in the sixes, which feels instinctively like it’s a terrible deal.”

So the question becomes:

“If you truly believe those two things, prices are not coming down and rates are not going to three, then why do you want to live in the same house that you’ve lived in for ten, five years that you’re not happy in because you have a 3% rate?”

The Wealth Transfer We’re Witnessing

One of the most fascinating trends in the region is the continued strength of the ultra luxury segment. Properties priced above $3 million are moving at a pace that surprises many outsiders. Gretchen explained why.

North Carolina is in the middle of a massive wealth transfer. The area is attracting buyers with longstanding generational wealth as well as individuals who have created considerable new wealth in the diverse and rapidly growing local economy.

What’s driving this?

“What we are seeing especially in the North Carolina market is a massive wealth transfer and a massive wealth creation,” Gretchen explained. These buyers “have true generational wealth sometimes or new wealth that has been created in this diverse economy that we’ve had over the last 10 to 15 years.”

The market has evolved dramatically. Ten or fifteen years ago, a three million dollar home in Raleigh felt aspirational. Today, especially in neighborhoods like North Hills, that price point is becoming the entry level standard for certain segments of the luxury market.

North Hills in Raleigh, NC

The 50-Year Mortgage Debate

Podcast host Matt Gomoll brought up the idea of fifty year mortgages, and Gretchen provided a balanced view. She does not oppose the concept entirely because creative tools can help buyers access the market. However, she is concerned about long term equity, especially for buyers who lack financial literacy and sound advice.

When Matt asked about 50-year mortgages, Gretchen was candid:

“I’m like you, Matt. I don’t hate the idea. I don’t hate it as a tool because we’ve got to get creative sometimes.”

However, we need to be realistic. Gretchen shared a sobering statistic: “The stat came out a couple months ago by NAR, the National Association of Realtors, that said that the average age of a first-time home buyer is 38 years old. Can you believe that?”

She contrasted this with her own experience: “I bought my first condo at 22 years old. From the age of 22 to 38, you might be able to make $250,000, $500,000 tax-free. How long would it take you as a renter paying taxes to save that much money? You might not ever be able to do it in that time period.”

Buyers in previous generations often purchased their first homes decades earlier, allowing them to build hundreds of thousands of dollars in tax free equity. Extending amortization periods could delay or diminish that wealth building potential.

The concern with 50-year mortgages is significant. As Gretchen warned:

“When people go to sell, they have no equity, and they can’t bring money to closing. I mean, a lot of people who would be doing this, they’re not financially savvy. They don’t have an understanding of financial literacy that can help them and they’re getting bad advice.”

Why People Choose the Carolinas

Despite economic jitters, Raleigh remains one of the most desirable places to live in the country. The Triangle continues to see strong population growth, with recent figures showing that roughly 56 people move to the region each day.

The reasons run deeper than politics or interest rates. People choose Raleigh because they want a lifestyle that offers opportunity, comfort, and community. Our unmatched education ecosystem, including proximity to NC State, Duke, and UNC Chapel Hill, creates a ripple effect that enhances everything from child care to high school experiences. That intellectual foundation has helped the region earn the highest concentration of PhDs per capita in the nation.

Families come for school and career opportunities, fall in love with the lifestyle, and stay. Their parents often follow. This multigenerational migration is a powerful and unique driver of local demand.

“People move here and they love it. They go to school here and they don’t leave and so their parents follow them. If my kids start having grandkids, I’m going wherever they go.”

What makes the Triangle so attractive? Gretchen explained: “When you start thinking about having three research institutions like that in your market, all of that juice funnels all the way down to the child care to the pre-K to the kindergarten to the lower schools, the middle schools, the high schools and you have educational opportunities that you can’t recreate in other places.”

The Power of Informed Advice

Perhaps Gretchen’s most important point in the discussion was about the limitations of data without guidance.

One of the most memorable moments from the conversation centered on the limits of pure data. Gretchen emphasized that while information is widely accessible, what most people truly need is guidance that blends financial understanding with emotional intelligence. Data alone cannot tell you whether it is the right time to move based on your goals, your stress level, your family situation, or your financial foundation.

The best advisors, whether in real estate or finance, simplify complex challenges. They help people make decisions that move them closer to the life they want, not the life they feel trapped in.

The value of professional advice, whether from financial advisors or real estate professionals, lies in having “the IQ and the EQ to take complex problems and break them down into very simple things that people can see clearly.”

Looking Ahead

Gretchen shared her outlook for the coming year, and it was refreshingly optimistic. She sees signs of rates continuing to shift lower, believes spring will bring renewed momentum, and expects the Triangle to maintain its strong appeal.

Yes, affordability is changing, and yes, the cost of living is rising, but Raleigh still delivers unmatched value compared to other metro areas offering similar opportunity and lifestyle.

The takeaway is simple. You cannot control mortgage rates or national headlines, but you can control how you respond. Clear goals, informed guidance, and decisive action still build wealth in every market cycle.

“I feel like rates are shifting lower. I feel like we’re going to see that as we go into the end of the year, as we go into the midterm cycle next year. I feel like spring is going to be a great season for us.”

Her biggest concern? “Right now, we’re starting to inch up in housing prices. The cost of living is starting to go up.” While “we’re not as affordable as we used to be,” Raleigh still offers exceptional value, and our unique combination of education, opportunity, and Southern hospitality continues to draw people seeking a better quality of life.

The key is focusing on what you can control: making decisions based on your actual needs rather than waiting for market conditions that may never return. After all, as the group discussed, homeownership remains one of the most powerful wealth-building tools available, but only if you take action.

Ready to Have a Real Conversation About Your Goals?

If you feel stuck, uncertain, or overwhelmed, you are not alone. Many people across Raleigh, Cary, Apex, North Hills, and the surrounding communities are facing the same questions. What makes the difference is having the right guide in your corner.

The difference between feeling stuck and moving forward often comes down to having the right guidance, someone who can cut through the noise and help you see your situation clearly. If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines wondering whether now is the right time to buy or sell, or if you’re simply ready to explore what’s possible for your next chapter, let’s talk.

At The Coley Group, we believe in bringing both the expertise and the emotional intelligence to help you make decisions that align with your dreams, not just the headlines. Whether you’re curious about the Raleigh market, thinking about making a move, or just want to understand your options better, we’re here to listen and provide the clarity you need.